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« Weigh in, 8/5/05 - Better than nothing, I guess | Main | Siege on Joysmouth ongoing, defensive forces mobilized »

August 05, 2005

a long, boring, and probably grossly misleading math post

In an absolutely shocking development, I responded to a disappointing weigh-in by crunching the numbers! Who saw that coming? ;)

Taking my calories in - calories out Mon-Thurs and figuring that I burn 2000 calories per day just staying alive (stayin' alive, stayin' alive, ah-ah-ah-ah, stayin' aliiiiiii--oh, sorry), I show a 2577-calorie deficit for the week. This is less than a pound, so my loss this week is about right, so long as the weekend days were a wash. I suspect that they were--I burned 1300 calories on Saturday's ride, but probably ate close to 3000 (buffalo wings and cheese enchiladas). Sunday was an average calorie day, with no exercise. Friday was probably also about even. So strictly by the numbers, half a lb. this week is fair. If my scale was more precise, I may have seen a slightly bigger loss, but certainly not a full pound.

You know what this means, right?

I'm eating too much. Stop the presses!

This does surprise me a little, if only because I tend to pay attention to the numbers only when they're in my favor. For instance, my HRM told me that I burned 3410 calories in exercise this week, so my brain leapt on that number and said--"Hey, you should lose at least a pound, since you're eating a deficit, too."

Here's the flaw in that logic--I was double-dipping some of my exercise. First, I was calculating my background calorie burn based on an active person, then adding all my exercise calories to that, and subtracting my calories eaten from the total to come up with my calorie deficit. So whatever portion of those "active person" calories were due to...well, activity, I was counting them twice. And then wondering why was wasn't losing more weight. Sigh.

So now, I've been forced to reassess my numbers. Anticipating that Saturdays and Sundays will cancel each other out, I ran the numbers on weekdays only. According to various charts and estimates from my own observations, my sedentary burn is 2000-2100 calories. To be on the safe side (and to make the math easier), I'm going with 2000. At a food limit of 1700, I'm at a 300-calorie deficit. Multiply that by 5, that's 1500. Each of my four weekday rides burns around 500 calories, so that would add another 2000 calories. 1500+2000=3500 calories, a completely respectable full pound loss.

However, if I'm going to make 165 by mid-September, a pound is not enough. Strictly by the math, I'd need to lose another 2625 calories. Divided by 5, that's 525 per day. 1700-525=1175. So, if weekends don't matter, I'd have to limit myself to 1175 calories on weekdays in order to lose the 1.75 lbs/week I need to hit the Hometown 20 goal.

Holy shit. That's a recipe for disaster if ever I heard one! Don't get me wrong--I know there are people who live quite happily on 1200 calories/day. More power to them, I say. I've tried that road, though, and it only led to frustration and disappointment in myself (see my Weight Watchers experience, 2003-early 2005). So, let's try this again.

What happens if I add a 40-minute walk on ride days, and an hour on the off day? In addition to giving me work fitness points if I do it over my lunch hour, it also burns about 250-300 calories per day. At the high end, that would bring my food calorie limit up to 1475, which is much less soul-sucking than 1175 (even though it's only the equivalent of an apple w/peanut butter...funny how that works).

And what if, in addition to that, I ate less on Saturday? Like, instead of a 3000-calorie free day, I showed even a little restraint? I could save another 500 calories, at least. And yes, one could argue that eliminating the free day altogether would solve all my problems and possibly make hosts of angels burst into song, but I like having one day when I can eat what I feel like eating when I feel like eating it. There's no need to get crazy with it, though, which is kind of what I have been doing lately. (Buffalo wings and cheese enchiladas in the same day? Are you kidding me?)

Anyway. Keeping all of this in mind, here's what I'm changing for this week:

1. Changing my food target to 1500 calories on weekdays.
2. Adding walks during my lunch hour Mon-Fri.
3. Eating sanely on my free weekends.

If the numbers work out like I think they will, I should be at least 1.5 lbs lighter next week. We shall see.

Posted by Joy at August 5, 2005 10:21 AM
Comments

Hi Joy. I didnt' think that post was boring at all. :) In fact I think its great that you are so on top of your calorie intake. I pretty much have no idea what I'm going to eat on any given day, (not smart, I know) so I have no idea how many calories I'm eating. I'm trying to stick to 24 points per WW, but now that I've started riding more I know I need more food. But probably not as much as I've been eating. But that's a whole nother story.

Anyway, good luck with your new plan, I'll be looking foward to hearing how it turns out.

Posted by: Jeni on August 5, 2005 04:45 PM

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